| ITRInews | January 2001, No. 28 |
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In This Issue of ITRInews
Andreessen's Law for the Internet
IEEE-USA Legislative Agenda for the 107th Congress
Japanese Second 5-Year S&T Plan
The Metrics of Science and Technology
Website for Professionals in R&D Evaluation
New Japanese Ministries
TIMSS-R International Comparison
ITRI Alumni News
Burt Edelson
Raj Reddy
Ed Feigenbaum
Featured Organizations in International S&T:
Brookings Institution
SRI Science and Technology Policy Program
Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
S&T Policy Think Tanks in Previous Issues of ITRInews
Washington Fax
Science Policy Library (Bern)
Institut für Wissenschafts- und Technikforschung
The Global Development Network
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| Andreessen's Law As measured by the
number of domain names, the Internet is doubling about every 18 months
-- similar to the growth in the number of devices on semiconductor chips
as modeled by Moore's Law. This is the engine that the dot.com speculators
hoped would somehow be coupled into exponential growth in profits. These
measurements were originated by Mark Lotter in the early 80s, and are now
carried out by the Internet Software Consortium. http://www.isc.org/ds/
The latest worldwide total from July 2000 is 93,047,785 domain names, and I'll bet you can forecast within 5% the results soon to be available for January 2001. (Hint: plot the data using Excel's semilog graph format, which makes it a very straight line.) Marc Andreessen, inventor of the Mosaic browser, is my idea of who should be honored by the name of this law. Who do you think? You might want to check out a history of the Web for your nominations: http://www.geocities.com/~anderberg/ant/history/ Nations with more than a million domains are:
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Japanese Second 5-Year S&T Plan The government completed a draft of the nation's second 5-year S&T basic plan for fiscal 2001-2005 emphasizing four fields, including life science, data communications, environment and nanotechnology and materials. The first S&T basic plan of 1995 resulted in doubling of the Government's investment in R&D. The draft of this new one will be finalized by the end of the year, but does not cover the government's investment in R&D. It does propose doubling the portion of the budget for competitive grants from the current annual budget of $3 billion. See NSF/Tokyo Office Report Memorandum: Preview of the 2nd S&T Basic Plan.http://www.twics.com/~nsftokyo/rm00-18.html
The Metrics of Science and Technology by Eliezer Geisler (Quorum Books, 2000) provides a theoretical framework for qualitative and quantitative assessments of R&D. The subject is in a primitive state, despite this effort. The models connecting proxy measurements of intermediate outputs like papers, patents and evaluations of quality by expert review can make only a loose connection with the real outcomes of profits, better health care, and other social benefits of research. Geisler says that until you can model this connection, you shouldn't call such measures "indicators" of S&T, but rather simply metrics or data. He proposes a "Process-Outcomes" model to overcome some of the many deficiencies he catalogs in existing metrics. http://info.greenwood.com/books/1567202/1567202136.html
Website for Professionals in R&D Evaluation The Georgia Tech School of Public Policy has started a website for professionals in the field to collect and share information. Please visit, check your entry, and make suggestions for other centers and scholars that should be listed. If you want, you can subscribe to a listserv through the site. This email list will carry news of interest to this community. The site is available at http://www.spp.gatech.edu/research/research_netsummary.html
English Names of New Japanese Ministries. MITI,
Monbusho, and MPT are no more. The English names for the reorganized
13 Japanese ministries that will be launched as of January 6, 2001 are:
Cabinet office
National Public Safety Commission
Defense Agency
Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications
Ministry of Justice
Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Ministry of Finance
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare
Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
Ministry of Environment
From the NSF/Tokyo e-letter on Japan.
kshinoha@nsf.gov
Chinese High-Tech Sector Expands Innovative
science projects helped strengthen the PRC during the Ninth Five-year Plan
(1996-2000). Statistics show that the export volume of China's high-tech
products last year reached about $25 billion, 13 percent of the total export
volume. The Torch Project, launched in 1988 to encourage the development
of technology, has played an important role in the growth of a group of
high-tech zones, in which there were 17,000 high-tech enterprises last
year. Those enterprises had an overall industrial output worth 594
billion yuan (US$72 billion) and earned about US$12 billion in foreign
exchange for the country last year. Among them, the number of high-tech
enterprises whose revenues exceeded 1 billion yuan (US$120 million) reached
100 last year. From the NSF/Tokyo China newsletter.kshinoha@nsf.gov
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TIMSS-R Website ITRInews27 reported
on the preliminary results in the New York Times from the 1999 Third
International Math and Science Study. I have now found the website
at Boston College that has more complete data.
TIMSS was first administered in 1995, when 41 countries assessed the mathematics and science achievement of students in the third, fourth, seventh, and eighth grades, and in the final year of secondary school. Generally in 1995 U.S. students were above average at the the 4th grade level, about average in the 8th grade, and near the bottom in the 12th grade. In 1999, 38 countries, including 26 of those participating in 1995, assessed their eighth graders' achievement. The performance of that U.S. 4th grade cohort has now dropped to about average, with students from most of the industialized nations leading those in the U.S. This decline is most discouraging and brings into question whether the U.S. will be able to maintain its leadership in S&T -- unless it imports better educated personnel from abroad. The table at left shows the percentage of a nation's students whose test results were in the top quarter of the worldwide average scores. That is, 34% of the American students scored in the top quartile in science and 28% were in the top quarter in math. The next TIMSS assessment will take place in 2003. This assessment will provide countries that participated in 1995 and 1999 the opportunity to study trends in eighth-grade mathematics and science achievement and background at three points over an eight-year period. The 2003 assessment also will include fourth-grade, providing an opportunity to collect trend data for this grade level for two points, 1995 and 2003. One wonders why the managers don't want 12th graders tested anymore. That level would seem to be the appropriate point to measure of the effectiveness of the public education system when its graduates leave for universities to major in fields like math and science. Funding for the international coordination of TIMSS 1999 was provided by the U.S. Department of Education, the U.S. National Science Foundation, the World Bank, and participating countries. Each participating country was responsible for funding national project costs and implementing TIMSS 1999 in accordance with the international procedures. |
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ITRI ALUMNI NEWS
ITRI recruits distinguished scientists and engineers for its panels.
Some more examples:
Burt Edelson is director of the Institute for Applied Space Research of the George Washington University and is also a member of the faculty of the School of Engineering and Applied Science. From 1982 to 1987, he was Associate Administrator for Space Science and Applications at NASA. In that position, he was responsible for the direction of all NASA programs in space astronomy and astrophysics, planetary exploration, earth sciences, biomedical and microgravity sciences, space applications, and for institutional management of the Goddard Space Flight Center and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. From 1968 to 1982, Dr. Edelson held positions at the Communications Satellite Corporation, including Director of COMSAT Laboratories, Vice President for Systems Engineering and Senior Vice President. He has been awarded the Navy Legion of Merit and is a Fellow of the AIAA and IEEE. http://www.seas.gwu.edu/~iasr/edelson.html
Dr. Edelson was co-chair of our 1993 study on Communications Satellites and Technology. http://www.itri.loyola.edu/satcom/
Raj Reddy was named in 1999 by President Bill Clinton to serve as co-chair of the President's Information Technology Advisory Committee (PITAC), a billion dollar R&D program. PITAC is established by an executive order and provides guidance to OSTP and the agencies involved in the PITAC Initiative. Reddy has served at Carnegie Mellon University, Pennsylvania, in several capacities: as dean of the School of Computer Science 199-1999, and as founding director of the Robotics Institute 1979-1991. Since 1992, he has been a Simon University professor of computer science and robotics. He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering. Dr. Reddy was awarded the Legion of Honor by President Mitterand of France in 1984
Dr. Reddy was chair of our 1999 study of Digital Information Organization in Japan. http://itri.loyola.edu/digilibs/
Edward A. Feigenbaum is one of the pioneers of artificial intelligence. He continues his long-term research in the representation of knowledge for use by programs that reason. Dr. Feigenbaum has also been a faculty member at Stanford University for years and is founder and co-director of the Knowledge Systems Laboratory, a leading laboratory for work in knowledge engineering and expert systems. He served as Chief Scientist of the U.S. Air Force in Washington, D.C. from 1994-1997. He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering. He and Raj Reddy shared the 1995 Turing Award from the ACM. http://www.sis.pitt.edu/~mbsclass/is2000/hall_of_fame/feigenba.htm
Dr. Feigenbaum chaired our 1993 study on Knowledge-Based Systems in Japan. http://itri.loyola.edu/kb/
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FEATURED ORGANIZATIONS THIS MONTH
Brookings Institution The Institution traces its beginnings to 1916 with the founding of the Institute for Government Research, the first private organization devoted to public policy issues at the national level. Brookings is financed largely by endowment and by the support of philanthropic foundations, corporations, and private individuals. Its funds are devoted to carrying out its own research and educational activities. It also undertakes some unclassified government contract studies, reserving the right to publish its findings. http://www.brookings.org/default.htm
SRI Science and Technology Policy Program,
a Washington-based research unit of SRI International, provides decision-makers
with interdisciplinary research and analysis concerning major national
and international S&T issues. Commissioned studies, frequently based
on the generation and analysis of primary source data, are designed to
provide both future policy options and objective assessments of past efforts.
The program uses a multi-dimensional research approach, integrating the
analysis of S&T policy formation, R&D infrastructure, and resources--using
quantitative measures of personnel, expenditures, and scientific research
outputs--together with evaluation by technical experts in the fields under
consideration. http://www.sri.com/policy/econpract/stpp.html
Potomac Institute for Policy Studies is
an independent, not-for-profit public policy research institute that provides
nonpartisan analysis of technology and technology policy to leaders in
government, business, and academia. The Institute's work reflects
the summation of technology's effects on business and government.
The Institute has conducted studies on a wide range of technology and technology
policy topics, including defense acquisition reform, dual use technology,
space commercialization, cyber-terrorism and biological terrorism.
http://www.potomacinstitute.com/
Other U.S. S&T Policy Think Tanks Featured in Previous
Issues of ITRInews:
National Academies: NAS, NAE, NAM, and NRC.
http://www.nationalacademies.org/about/
RAND Science and Technology Policy Institute.
http://www.rand.org/centers/stpi/
GWU Center for International Science and Technology
Policy http://gwis.circ.gwu.edu/~cistp/
World Technology Evaluation Center, Inc. (WTEC, Inc.)
http://www.wtec.org
Washington Fax. Daily science policy e-letter that tracks activities in Washington that affect the science and education research community. It provides news and information needed to stay abreast of: Critical issues of the day, Congressional and agency action, Proposed legislation, Budgets and appropriations. Each business day, Washington Fax subscribers receive an e-mail alert with four new headlines, the full text of the day's lead story, web links to the rest of that day's coverage, and links to related online resources. Free trial subscriptions are available; a year costs $750. http://www.washingtonfax.com/
Science Policy Library The Science Policy Library is a part of the Swiss Center for Science & Technology Studies. It collects and stores documentation on science policy issues, which is made available to both science policy professionals and the general public. It has 11,000 monographs, 1500 referenced articles, 750 series (e.g. annual reports), 250 reviews. http://www.swtr.ch/doc/
Institut für Wissenschafts- und Technikforschung Matthias Winterhager at the Universität Bielefeld has a nice clearinghouse of bibliometrics, including links to people, conferences, and journals. http://www.uni-bielefeld.de/iwt/mw/bibliometrics
The Global Development Network GDN aims to enhance the quality and availability of policy-oriented research and strengthen the institutions which undertake this work. The GDN offers tools, services and networking opportunities to help these institutions and their members join together to fight poverty [This is an innovative website that promotes policy research in the international development arena, mainly of interest to ITRI's IBD division.] http://www.gdnet.org/
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Copyright © 2001 ITRI, Inc. ITRI, Inc. or its sponsors do not
accept responsibility for the accuracy of information. Comments to rds@itri2.org
please.
HTML versions are at: http://itri2.org/ITRInews/
| DATE | FEATURE ARTICLE | URL |
| Aug 98 | Left Hand/Right Hand: NSF and NAS Both Assess US Math Research | http://itri.loyola.edu/NEWS/ITRInews1.htm |
| Sep 98 | The Y1.998K Problem: Y2K Arrives 0.002K Early. Markets Crash, PMs Fired, Orioles 31 Games Behind | http://itri.loyola.edu/NEWS/ITRInews2.htm |
| Oct 98 | Is S&T to Blame for the Asian Financial Crisis? | http://itri.loyola.edu/NEWS/ITRInews3.htm |
| Nov 98 | NRC to State: Ignoring S&T is Ignorant | http://itri.loyola.edu/NEWS/ITRInews4.htm |
| Dec 98/Jan 99 | The Bottom Line: US Trade Deficit Skyrockets | http://itri.loyola.edu/NEWS/ITRInews5.htm |
| Feb 99 | Who's the Bear, and Who's the Bull? Japan Doubles R&D; The US Cuts It | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews6.html |
| Mar 99 | Who's On First? (US, But Not for Long) | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews7.html |
| Apr 99 | GPRA Metastasizes Abroad | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews8.html |
| May/Jun 99 | Teraflops Computers Meet Gates' Law | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews9.html |
| July 99 | More Good News / Bad News from the Academy | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews10.html |
| Aug 99 | Rep. George Brown Adjourns | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews11.html |
| Sep 99 | 200GB Disk: 40 Films on One CD | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews12.html |
| Oct 99 | Is International S&T Assessment Needed? | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews13.html |
| Nov 99 | Output in Papers: We're Number One? | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews14.html |
| Dec 99 / Jan 00 | New Technology Czar(ina) | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews15.html |
| Feb 00 | S&T: Ready for Prime Time? | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews16.html |
| Mar 00 | Bottom Line II: Trade Deficit Skyrocket Explodes | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews17.html |
| Apr 00 | Who's Getting U.S. Patents? | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews18.html |
| May 00 | Think That Government is Investing More in Research? Think Again. | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews19.html |
| Jun 00 | American Leadership of S&T: Reality or Myth? | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews20.html |
| Jul 00 | Science and Engineering Indicators 2000 Released by NSF | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews21.html |
| Aug 00 | Pale Green Manufacturing: US is 3rd out of 3 | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews22.html |
| Aug 00 (Extra) | Americans Like Being No. 1 and Want to Keep It That Way | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/ITRInews23.html |
| Sept 00 | Industry Leads U.S. R&D | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/ITRInews24.html |
| Oct 00 | Gingrich Praises Clinton | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/ITRInews25.html |
| Nov 00 | Research Feasts: FY2001 Budgets | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/ITRInews26.html |
| Dec 00 | S&T Policy of the Bush Administration | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/ITRInews27.html |
| Jan 01 | Andreessen's Law for the Internet | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/ITRInews28.html |