| ITRInews | September-October, 2002, No. 46 |
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A Mini Editorial:
This issue has some new data on whether the U.S. Goverment is meeting
its fifty-year-old goal of "maintaining world leadership" in science and
technology. While there are many metrics that can be used, data here
tends to show that the answer is "no." There is no single national
state that can challenge the U.S. for world leadership, but the European
Union is evolving rapidly into a "United States of Europe" (http://news.independent.co.uk/europe/story.jsp?story=346857
)
that leads the United States of America in some of the most important metrics.
The planned expansion of the EU from 15 to 25 states is likely put the
U.S. into second place by more measures within two years. "American Leadership
of S&T: Reality or Myth?" presents two dozen metrics through 2000.
http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/myth.pdf
Duane Cassandra Shelton, Editor: rds@itri2.org
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In This Issue of ITRInews
US High Technology Trade Surplus Disappears
US Trade Deficit in Goods Overall Nears $1/2 Trillion
for 2002
US Publications Lead Declines to Only 7 of 20 S&T
Fields
US Physical Science Funding Declines
US FY2003 S&T Budgets Still in Limbo
Featured Organizations in International S&T:
US Department of Commerce Reports on S&T Policy
Posted
Technology Rating International
Kalba International
International Assessment of Agricultural Science and
Technology
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U.S. Trade Surplus in High Tech Products Disappears Although there are many other factors involved, one global measure of success in commercializing science is the balance of trade in the international marketplace. Trade in high technology products alone is particularly interesting in this respect. The bar graph on the right shows the U.S. Census annual data for the balance of trade in high technology products for the last 12 years, plus the results for the first eight months of 2002. Unless there is a sudden turnaround in the last four months of the year, the U.S. is headed for its first ever deficit in this measure of competitiveness. http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/www/
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US Publications Lead Declines to Only
7 of 20 S&T Fields
As late as 1991, the US led in placing its best S&T papers in the
world's leading journals in 17 of the 20 fields tabulated by the Institute
for Scientific Information. This metric plummeted in the 1990s to
a US lead in only 9 fields in 1999. Now data through 2001 shows that
the US has lost its lead in two additional fields to the EU, which now
leads in 12 fields to the US's 7. The Asia Pacific Region leads in
one (materials sciences). Extrapolation of trends and the expansion
of the EU to 25 countries predict that the U.S. will lose leadership of
three more fields to the EU by 2004. The basic data comes from the
ISI National Science Indicators CD (standard edition) available for sale
at http://sunweb.isinet.com/isi/products/rsg/products/nsi/index.html
There is a pretty strong correlation between these sudden changes and the
news item below.
US Physical Science Funding Declines
The President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST)
has released a report documenting sharp declines in support of physical
science R&D by the Federal Government. "...federal R&D as
a percentage of GDP has shrunk steadily to less than 0.7 percent of GDP
in 2000, bringing the federal investment down to levels not seen since
the early 1950s. "Some fields continued to experience increases in
federal funding between 1993 and 2000, such as biology (up 97 percent),
computer sciences (up 77 percent), and math (up 31 percent).
Some fields continued to have less funding in 2000 than in 1993, including
physics (down 20 percent), the geological sciences (down 30 percent), Ch.E.
(down 30 percent), EE (down 26 percent), and ME (down 46 percent)."
"Trends in federal funding of university research can affect graduate student enrollment by providing support for graduate research assistantships and by shaping the job market in science and engineering fields." "There were fewer graduate students in the physical sciences in 2000 than in 1993 - 21 percent fewer in physics and 9 percent fewer in chemistry," for example. This RAND/AAAS report contains 60 pages of figures and other statistics http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1639.0/ This summary was excerpted from Richard M. Jones's AIP FYI e-letter. http://www.aip.org/gov
US FY2003 S&T Budgets Still in
Limbo
AAAS monitors the progress of the Appropriations bills as they wind
their way through the tortuous approval process in Congress. Only
two of the 13 appropriations bills to fund the U.S. Government starting
October 1, 2002 have been signed into law, and the whole process has stalled
until after the November elections. All the other bills are in a
deadlock condition because the President has said that he will veto any
bills that put the discretionary budget over his request of $750 billion.
In R&D his budget calls for very meager increases; the Senate and House
have proposed much larger increases in their bills, but such increases
would cause the budget to exceed the President's limit. The defense
appropriations bills that have been completed do call for record increases
in R&D. So now what? It may not even be possible to resolve
the problem during the lame duck session after the election, and it may
have to carry over until calendar year 2003 with the 108th Congress. http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd/approp03.htm
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FEATURED ORGANIZATIONS THIS MONTH
Department of Commerce Reports on
Technology Transfer and Evaluation
The Technology Administration of the U.S. Department of Commerce now
has posted over 30 major reports 1995-2002 on S&T policy including
international S&T issues. Some sample titles include: Singapore's
Biomedicine Initiative: A Prescription for Growth? (2001), International
S&T: Policies, Programs, and Investments (2000), Tech Transfer 2000:
Making Partnerships Work (2000), Information Technology in the Development
Strategies of Asia (1999) [prepared by WTEC], The Global Context for US
Technology Policy (1997), Korea's Strategy for Leadership in R&D (1997),
and Foreign Technology Information Sources in the Government and Selected
Private Sector Organizations (1996). http://www.ta.doc.gov/reports.htm
The Technology Transfer Commercialization Act of 2000 (15 USC 3710 (f)) now requires Federal agencies that operate national labs to report annually on their tech transfer activities. The first Department of Commerce report was submitted in June 2002 as a part of their FY2003 budget request. It includes counts of patents, royalties, CRADAs, etc. for NIST, NOAA, and NTIA. http://www.ta.doc.gov/reports/TechPolicy/TechTrans_2003.htm
Technology Rating International
This Dutch company provides an unbiased technology assessment of proposed
high technology ventures on behalf of investors. http://www.technologyrating.com/
Kalba International
This is a Massachusetts company that provides similar services for
the investment community, particularly in communications and multimedia
technologies.
http://www.kalbainternational.com/technology_assessment.html
International Assessment of Agricultural Science and
Technology
This is a division of the World Bank that expects to use assessments
to help poor nations improve their food supply.
http://www.agassessment.org/about/index.html
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Copyright © 2002 ITRI, Inc. Comments to rds@itri2.org please.
ITRI, Inc.
633A Main Street
Laurel, MD 20207
301-490-6835
| DATE | FEATURE ARTICLE | URL |
| Sept/Oct 02 | U.S. High Technology Trade Surplus Disappears | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/N46.html |
| Jul/Aug 02 | U. S. Internet Growth Halts | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/N45.html |
| Jun 02 | U.S. Raises the Stakes in the Supercomputer Game;
Japan Raises that Raise |
http://itri2.org/ITRInews/N44.html |
| May 02 | Double-Double in U.S. S&T Investments | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/N43.html |
| Apr 02 | Japanese Lap the U.S. in the Supercomputer Race | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/N42.html |
| Mar 02 | Criteria for Basic Research Performance | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/N41.html |
| Feb 02 | Internet Growth Slows | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/N40.html |
| Dec 01 /Jan 02 | Japan Ups S&T Paper Quality and Quantity as U. S. Declines | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/N39.html |
| Nov 01 | Marburger Shakes Up OSTP | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/N38.html |
| Oct 01 | Impact of Terrorism on R&D | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/N37.html |
| Sep 01 | US Technologies Lead;
US Technologists Lag |
http://itri2.org/ITRInews/N36.html |
| Aug 01 | Doctors of Economic Warfare | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/N35.html |
| Jul 01 | Marburger to be OSTP Director | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/N34.html |
| Jun 01 | Nano is Huge, and Getting Bigger | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/N33.html |
| May 01 | R&D Budget Crash | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/N32.html |
| Apr 01 | As DotComs Wilt, Internet Sprouts | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/N31.html |
| Mar 01 | Research Famines: FY2002 Budgets | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/ITRInews30.html |
| Feb 01 | Sherwood Boehlert:
New Science Committee Chair |
http://itri2.org/ITRInews/ITRInews29.html |
| Jan 01 | Andreessen's Law for the Internet | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/ITRInews28.html |
| Dec 00 | S&T Policy of the Bush Administration | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/ITRInews27.html |
| Nov 00 | Research Feasts: FY2001 Budgets | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/ITRInews26.html |
| Oct 00 | Gingrich Praises Clinton | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/ITRInews25.html |
| Sep 00 | Industry Leads U.S. R&D | http://itri2.org/ITRInews/ITRInews24.html |
| Aug 00
(Extra) |
Americans Like Being No. 1
and Want to Keep It That Way |
http://itri2.org/ITRInews/ITRInews23.html |
| Aug 00 | Pale Green Manufacturing:
US is 3rd out of 3 |
http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews22.html |
| Jul 00 | Science and Engineering Indicators 2000 Released by NSF | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews21.html |
| Jun 00 | American Leadership of S&T: Reality or Myth? | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews20.html |
| May 00 | Think That Government is Investing More in Research? Think Again. | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews19.html |
| Apr 00 | Who's Getting U.S. Patents? | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews18.html |
| Mar 00 | Bottom Line II: Trade Deficit Skyrocket Explodes | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews17.html |
| Feb 00 | S&T: Ready for Prime Time? | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews16.html |
| Jan 00 /
Dec 99 |
New Technology Czar(ina) | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews15.html |
| Nov 99 | Output in Papers: We're Number One? | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews14.html |
| Oct 99 | Is International S&T Assessment Needed? | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews13.html |
| Sep 99 | 200GB Disk: 40 Films on One CD | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews12.html |
| Aug 99 | Rep. George Brown Adjourns | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews11.html |
| Jul 99 | More Good News / Bad News
from the Academy |
http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews10.html |
| Jun 99 /
May 99 |
Teraflops Computers Meet Gates' Law | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews9.html |
| Apr 99 | GPRA Metastasizes Abroad | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews8.html |
| Mar 99 | Who's On First?
(US, But Not for Long) |
http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews7.html |
| Feb 99 | Who's the Bear, and Who's the Bull? Japan Doubles R&D; The US Cuts It | http://justice.loyola.edu/~rds/ITRInews6.html |
| Jan 99 /
Dec 98 |
The Bottom Line:
US Trade Deficit Skyrockets |
http://itri.loyola.edu/NEWS/ITRInews5.htm |
| Nov 98 | NRC to State:
Ignoring S&T is Ignorant |
http://itri.loyola.edu/NEWS/ITRInews4.htm |
| Oct 98 | Is S&T to Blame for the Asian Financial Crisis? | http://itri.loyola.edu/NEWS/ITRInews3.htm |
| Sep 98 | The Y1.998K Problem: Y2K Arrives 0.002K Early. Markets Crash, PMs Fired, Orioles 31 Games Behind | http://itri.loyola.edu/NEWS/ITRInews2.htm |
| Aug 98 | Left Hand/Right Hand: NSF and NAS Both Assess US Math Research | http://itri.loyola.edu/NEWS/ITRInews1.htm |
